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1.
为准确定位风暴的强弱及灾害的大小，文中提出了泊松-二维对数正态分布，并将其用于海岸地区台风暴潮致灾强度的长期预测。选取青岛地区建国以来所出现的主要台风暴潮作为观测资料，以水位和显著波高系列组成样本，进行了台风暴潮重现期的统计推算。提出了判别台风暴潮致灾强度的新标准。实例显示，新标准概念清楚，简单易行，适用于青岛地区台风暴潮的强度确定。基于新模式的风暴潮强度随机分析方法对我国其它海岸地区的防潮减灾具有参考意义。 相似文献
2.
A two component mixed log-normal distribution effectively models annual precipitation totals at two stations in Peru characterized by widely differing interannual patterns of precipitation. Physical evidence supports the division of station records into two subsamples. Years with ENSO events and years without ENSO events identify the components of a mixed probability model. The mixed model produces a superior fit to the two parameter log-normal distribution. Model application provides a reliable means of precipitation prediction and also quantitatively describes the highly variable temporal and spatial pattern of annual precipitation in western Peru. 相似文献
3.
M. Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(3):183-200
The idea of an over-threshold sampling is to retain all the events of a time-series exceeding a given threshold. The probabilistic
analysis implies estimating two statistical models, one describing the occurrence of the events (date of the events), the
other describing their magnitude (value of the local maximum). These two models are then combined to obtain the distribution
of the annual maxima. A well-known result of a Poisson process is that waiting time, defined as the duration between two successive
events exceeding the threshold, is exponentially distributed. The assertion that the waiting time of a Negative Binomial process
is also exponentially distributed seems to be in obvious contradiction with the Poisson process properties. A theoretical
discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations are presented to solve this apparent paradox. 相似文献
4.
Chang-Jo F. Chung 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(7):851-865
Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances,
,
,
, and
forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by
and
and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances,
and
forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient YZ by
and the covariance
YZ
by
. The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada. 相似文献
5.
M. A. J. van Montfort A. Otten 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):69-76
In the peak over threshold model resulting in the Extreme-value distribution, type I, (EV1) the firste of the distribution function is based on the Poisson number of exceedances, and the seconde arises from the Exponentially distributed magnitudes.This paper, on the one hand, generalises the Poisson model to the (positive and negative) Binomial distribution, and, on the other hand, the Exponential distribution is generalised to the Generalised Pareto distribution. Lack of fit with respect to the Poisson and Exponential distribution is measured by statistics derived from those which would be locally most powerful if the estimates of the location and scale parameter were equal to the true parameter values. Ways of combining both statistics are discussed. 相似文献
6.
B.A. Mamedov 《New Astronomy》2012,17(3):353-355
A simple evaluation algorithm for calculation of the fermions and bosons relativistic thermodynamic functions with high accuracy is presented. This method is based on the use of the binomial expansion theorems and incomplete Gamma functions. The importance of this result is that it enables a series analytical formula to determine the thermodynamic functions of fermions and bosons in cases of degeneracy and relativity. The formulas obtained are numerically stable for ψ < 0. Examples of comparative calculations are given. Numerical results verify the effectiveness of the present approach and they are in good agreement with literature. 相似文献
7.
Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available. 相似文献
8.
Hiroyuki Usui Yasushi Asami 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(1):120-139
The size distribution of urban blocks is important for the characterisation of urban block patterns and is known to follow several parametric statistical distributions. However, it has not previously been analysed on the basis of a normative plane tessellation and in terms of urban block density and mean road width. In this article, we formulate the size distribution of Voronoi cells using the gamma distribution estimated by urban block density and mean road width. We found that (1) both log-normal and gamma distributions can be good candidates for the size distribution of urban blocks at the scale of a region that consists of regular urban blocks and that has a uniform road width; and (2) the size distribution of urban blocks depends on the balance between pattern and width improvement effects. Based on one study region in Tokyo, if the pattern improvement effect is more prominent than the width improvement effect, the mode of urban block sizes tends to be larger than if it is not. These findings are expected to provide scientific support for urban planning (e.g. land readjustment projects). 相似文献
9.
A. M. de S. Bueno C. A. de B. Pereira M. N. Rabello-Gay J. M. Stern 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2002,16(4):267-278
The data analyzed in this paper are part of the results described in Bueno et al. (2000). Three cytogenetics endpoints were
analyzed in three populations of a species of wild rodent – Akodon montensis – living in an industrial, an agricultural, and
a preservation area at the Itajaí Valley, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil. The polychromatic/normochromatic ratio, the mitotic
index, and the frequency of micronucleated polychromatic erythrocites were used in an attempt to establish a genotoxic profile
of each area. It was assumed that the three populations were in the same conditions with respect to the influence of confounding
factors such as animal age, health, nutrition status, presence of pathogens, and intra- and inter-populational genetic variability.
Therefore, any differences found in the endpoints analyzed could be attributed to the external agents present in each area.
The statistical models used in this paper are mixtures of negative-binomials and Poisson variables. The Poisson variables
are used as approximations of binomials for rare events. The mixing distributions are beta densities. The statistical analyzes
are under the bayesian perspective, as opposed to the frequentist ones often considered in the literature, as for instance
in Bueno et al. (2000). 相似文献
10.
介绍了一种成熟的已广泛应用于金融领域的估计不确定性的方法——copula函数方法, 并推广了n重的Frankrsquo;s copulas; 在实际应用中, 本文采用了俞言祥和美国西部由Boore等人给出的两个衰减模型, 针对其中存在的模型不确定性以及它们之间的相互依赖性, 构造出概率意义上联合的copula分布函数, 并将其应用于实例分析. 结果表明, 对比于传统逻辑树中所用的线性结合方法, copula将两者带来的概率分布写成一个联合概率分布, 能够很好地考虑双方不尽相同的意见. 另外, 由于copula函数可采用各种各样的边际分布函数来获得联合概率分布, 且在金融风险投资评估已有大量的应用, 因此在现代地震危险性评估中将有着广泛的前景. 相似文献